Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with just a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Feb 084
• Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 084/084/084
• 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 001/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01