Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Feb 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
February 5, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 04 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred at
04/1509Z from a source on the east limb near N14. This is likely the
return of old Region 720 (N13, L=178), which produced several major
flares during its previous transit across the visible disk.
Brightness fluctuations on the northeast limb suggest this region is
still quite active. A CME at 04/0731Z occurred in association with a
prominence eruption from the northeast limb. The CME does not appear
to be Earth directed. New Region 730 (S20E73) was numbered today and
produced occasional B-class flares.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The probability for M-class activty will increase
following the return of old Region 720 on 05 February.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed began the period at
over 500 km/s, but gradually decreased to near 430 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with occasional unsettled periods
on 05 and 06 February. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to rotate into geoeffective position on 07 February and induce
occasional active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

  • Class M 15/25/25
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 04 Feb 082
  • Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 090/100/115
  • 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/004
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-005/005-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/25
  • Minor storm 01/01/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/40
  • Minor storm 05/05/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.