Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Feb 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
February 4, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 04 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 547 (S08W55) produced a
C9/1f event at 04/1118 UTC with an associated 350 sfu Tenflare. A
small CME was observed with this event, but did not appear to be
directed toward the Earth. This region has shown some decay since

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The continued influence
of a high speed solar wind stream keeps the velocity averaging above
550 km/s and the Bz variable. There was a slight enhancement in the
low energy protons observed on the ACE spacecraft which correlate
with the C9 event at 04/1118 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet to unsettled with occasional active
periods for 05-06 February. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for 07 February as the affects of the high speed solar wind
stream subside.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

  • Class M 25/25/25
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 04 Feb 101
  • Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 105/105/105
  • 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 016/017
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 015/016
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 015/015-010/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/25
  • Minor storm 20/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/30
  • Minor storm 25/25/20
  • Major-severe storm 15/15/05

SpaceRef staff editor.