Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Feb 2004

By SpaceRef Editor

February 4, 2004

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 04 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 547 (S08W55) produced a
C9/1f event at 04/1118 UTC with an associated 350 sfu Tenflare. A
small CME was observed with this event, but did not appear to be
directed toward the Earth. This region has shown some decay since
yesterday.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The continued influence
of a high speed solar wind stream keeps the velocity averaging above
550 km/s and the Bz variable. There was a slight enhancement in the
low energy protons observed on the ACE spacecraft which correlate
with the C9 event at 04/1118 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet to unsettled with occasional active
periods for 05-06 February. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for 07 February as the affects of the high speed solar wind
stream subside.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb