Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Feb 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Feb 04 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 547 (S08W55) produced a
C9/1f event at 04/1118 UTC with an associated 350 sfu Tenflare. A
small CME was observed with this event, but did not appear to be
directed toward the Earth. This region has shown some decay since
yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The continued influence
of a high speed solar wind stream keeps the velocity averaging above
550 km/s and the Bz variable. There was a slight enhancement in the
low energy protons observed on the ACE spacecraft which correlate
with the C9 event at 04/1118 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet to unsettled with occasional active
periods for 05-06 February. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for 07 February as the affects of the high speed solar wind
stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
- Class M 25/25/25
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 04 Feb 101
- Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 105/105/105
- 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 016/017
- Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 015/016
- Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 015/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/25/25
- Minor storm 20/15/15
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/30
- Minor storm 25/25/20
- Major-severe storm 15/15/05