Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Dec 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Dec 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A slow moving CME was observed on the west limb at approximately 04/0430Z. This CME appears to have originated on the backside of the Sun and is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low though there is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 977 (S05E26).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the forecast period, 05 – 07 December.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Dec 074
• Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 000/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01