Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Dec 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. An active region rotating onto the east limb (S06) produced eight C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a C4 flare at 04/1439Z. Region 926 (S10W43) has decayed since yesterday and is now a Beta magnetic group. New Region 929 (N02E67) is classified as a Bxo-Beta group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 5 December. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 6 December, as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. Expect active to minor storm conditions, with possible major storm periods, on 7 December.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Dec 092
• Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 090/090/095
• 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 005/005-010/010-025/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/25/40
• Minor storm 05/10/25
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/25/45
• Minor storm 05/15/30
• Major-severe storm 01/05/15