Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Dec 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Dec 04 2204 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 826 (S04W21) produced the only C-flare of the period; a C2.1 at 04/0945 UTC. New Region 831 (S06W07) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 826.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE decreased from approximately 680 km/s to 560 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods possible on 05 December due to transient flow from the 02 December CME. On 06 December quiet to unsettled conditions are expected. On 07 December, quiet to active conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
- Class M 35/30/25
- Class X 10/05/05
- Proton 10/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 04 Dec 095
- Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 095/095/095
- 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 009/011
- Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 006/007
- Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 012/015-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/25/25
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/30/35
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
