Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Dec 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Dec 04 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. A minor C2 flare was
observed at 03/0108Z from Region 510 (S24W69). Region 517 (S06E20)
remains the largest spot group on the visible disk but is relatively
unchanged from yesterday. New Region 519 (S08W15) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 517 and 510 have the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began on 02 December has ended. The proton event
began at 02/1505Z, reached a peak flux of 88.9 pfu at 02/1820Z, and
ended at 04/0000Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed
stream effects may produce active conditions on 06 – 07 December.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 04 Dec 116
- Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 115/110/105
- 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 004/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 005/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 015/020-020/035-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/35/35
- Minor storm 10/20/20
- Major-severe storm 05/10/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/50/40
- Minor storm 20/30/25
- Major-severe storm 10/20/15
