Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 04 2217 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 5 August. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 6 August as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective late in the day. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 7 August.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Aug 069
• Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 001/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 005/005-008/010-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/30
• Minor storm 05/10/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/25/45
• Minor storm 05/15/25
• Major-severe storm 01/05/15