Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 04 2217 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 5 August. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 6 August as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective late in the day. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 7 August.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 04 Aug 069
- Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 004/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 001/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 005/005-008/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/15/30
- Minor storm 05/10/20
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 10/25/45
- Minor storm 05/15/25
- Major-severe storm 01/05/15