Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Aug 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Aug 04 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
794 (S11E19) produced a C8/Sf event at 04/0559Z, which was the
largest flare of the period. A resulting CME was seen on LASCO C2
imagery which does not appear to be Earth directed. This region
continues to show steady growth in sunspot area. Region 792
(N11W14) produced a single C-class flare today and underwent
continued decay in magnetic complexity. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 792 and 794 are capable of
producing isolated M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A period of active conditions occurred at high latitudes between
04/0600Z and 0900Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug

• Class M 50/50/50
• Class X 10/10/10
• Proton 10/10/10
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Aug 106
• Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 105/105/100
• 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 006/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 007/012-007/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05