Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Aug 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
August 4, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Aug 04 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
794 (S11E19) produced a C8/Sf event at 04/0559Z, which was the
largest flare of the period. A resulting CME was seen on LASCO C2
imagery which does not appear to be Earth directed. This region
continues to show steady growth in sunspot area. Region 792
(N11W14) produced a single C-class flare today and underwent
continued decay in magnetic complexity. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 792 and 794 are capable of
producing isolated M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A period of active conditions occurred at high latitudes between
04/0600Z and 0900Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug

  • Class M 50/50/50
  • Class X 10/10/10
  • Proton 10/10/10
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 04 Aug 106
  • Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 105/105/100
  • 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 006/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 010/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 007/012-007/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.