Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Aug 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 04 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through 06 Aug. Beginning on 07 Aug,
periods of active levels are likely with a slight chance for an
isolated active event due to the influence of a high speed solar
wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Aug 085
• Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 090/090/095
• 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 002/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 004/008-004/008-008/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/30
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05