Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Aug 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
August 4, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 04 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through 06 Aug. Beginning on 07 Aug,
periods of active levels are likely with a slight chance for an
isolated active event due to the influence of a high speed solar
wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 04 Aug 085
  • Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 090/090/095
  • 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 002/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 004/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 004/008-004/008-008/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/15
  • Minor storm 01/01/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/30
  • Minor storm 05/05/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.