Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Apr 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 865 (S11W35) produced a C4 flare at 03/2126 UTC. The penumbral area of the two major leading spots has merged in this region. The trailing spots appear to be in decay. This region is classified as a beta gamma magnetic group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Region 865.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible on 05 and 06 April due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 07 April.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr

• Class M 20/25/25
• Class X 01/05/05
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 04 Apr 100
• Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 100/100/100
• 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 008/012-008/012-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01