Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Apr 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Apr 04 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 747 (S06W32) has
slightly increased in both area and spot count. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Heightened activity was
due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
speed at ACE increased from approximately 350 km/s to 600 km/s
during the reporting period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible
on 05 April. On 06 and 07 April, quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 04 Apr 085
- Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 090/090/090
- 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 004/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 012/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 015/020-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/25/20
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/25/20
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/01
