Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Apr 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Apr 04 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 588 (S16E40)
produced a C3.1 flare at 04/1626 UTC. No significant development
was observed from active regions on the visible disk, and no new
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 587 (S14W17) and 588 may produce isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels.
Increased activity may be due to the continued infuence of transient
activity from the arrival of a CME on 03 April.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active conditions throughout the period,
with isolated minor storming possible on days one and two (5-6
April) from a high speed solar wind stream associated with a
recurrent coronal hole that is rotating into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 04 Apr 109
- Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 105/105/100
- 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
O
- bserved Afr/Ap 03 Apr 021/023
- Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 020/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 020/020-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 20/20/15
- Major-severe storm 15/15/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 35/35/30
- Major-severe storm 25/25/20
