Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 Apr 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
April 4, 2003
Filed under ,

SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low to moderate. Along with several
C-class flare events, Region 324 (S08W40) produced a significant
long-duration M1.9 flare at 2019 UTC. Several regions including
324, 321 (N08W68), and 323 (S07W87) continue to show considerable
low-level activity.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next two days, dropping off to low when Region 324
(S11W40) makes its way off the visible disk.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at low to active levels with periods
of minor storming due to the continued influence of a high-speed
solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active conditions during the next 24 hours. The waning high-speed
stream will decrease the geomagnetic field to quiet levels with
isolated periods of unsettled on the second and third days.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr

  • Class M 45/35/25
  • Class X 10/05/05
  • Proton 10/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 04 Apr 153
  • Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 155/150/145
  • 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 011/014
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 024/026
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 015/020-012/015-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/35
  • Minor storm 20/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 55/45/40
  • Minor storm 30/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 15/10/10

VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

SpaceRef staff editor.