Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Sep 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. Solar wind signatures at ACE indicated the passage of a corotating interaction region followed by a slow steady rise in solar wind velocity.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for the next two days (4-5 September) due to the influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole. Activity levels are expected to decline to predominantly unsettled for the third day (6 September).

III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Sep 066
• Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 007/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 012/012-012/018-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/40/20
• Minor storm 15/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 50/50/30
• Minor storm 20/20/10
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05