Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Sep 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only one low-level B-class flare was observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled. A single period of active conditions was observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 03/1200-1500Z. Real-time solar wind speed at ACE remains elevated at approximately 645 km/sec at forecast issue time due to the lingering effects of the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 04 August. Quiet conditions are expected on 05 August. Expect quiet to active conditions to return on 06 August, with isolated minor storm periods possible at high latitudes, as a recurrent coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Sep 068
• Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 017/023
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 005/005-005/005-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/35
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/35
• Minor storm 05/05/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10