Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Sep 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
September 4, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Sep 2006
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period at middle latitudes between 03/0300 – 0600 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible on 04 September. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 05 and 06 September.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep

  • Class M 01/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 03 Sep 077
  • Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 075/080/080
  • 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 006/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 008/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 008/015-006/008-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/10
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/15
  • Minor storm 15/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.