Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Sep 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Sep 03 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The SOHO/LASCO
imagery observed several CME’s during the last 24 hours. There were
two halo events associated with this activity and an analysis
indicates both appear to be backside events. New region 668
(S11W34) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Sep 097
• Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 100/105/110
• 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 008/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 006/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 008/010-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01