Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Sep 2003
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. No significant
changes have been noted for the active regions on the visible disk.
After further analysis of the magnetic structure surrounding Regions
449 and 450, these regions have been combined into one region
numbered as 450 (S16W07).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with C-class flares possible from Region 450 (S16W07).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active, due to the effects of
high speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind
speed was steady around 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated minor storm conditions
days one and two are possible from a high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 03 Sep 111
- Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 115/125/130
- 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 012/012
- Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 015/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 015/020-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 10/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 40/30/30
- Major-severe storm 15/10/10
