Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft show a continued influence of the recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Solar wind speed has averaged around 660 km/s with Bz fluctuations from +/- 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with possible isolated active periods for 04-05 October. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 06 October.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Oct 067
• Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 011/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 010/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 007/010-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/10/05
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01