Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Oct 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity continued at very low levels. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The increase in activity corresponds to a coronal hole high speed stream. Real-time solar wind data showed speed gradually increasing over the period to a maximum of approximately 600 km/s at 03/1555Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 October). Minor storm periods may occur at high latitudes. Activity on days two and three (05 and 06 October) should decline to mostly quiet levels.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Oct 067
• Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 005/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 015/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 010/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/10/05
• Minor storm 10/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/10
• Minor storm 15/10/01
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01