Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Oct 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Oct 03 2208 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity levels were very low again this period. Old active Region 808 is rotating on the southeast limb near S10. This was a very active region during its last passage across the visible disk; however, there has been no significant eruptive activity observed over the past few days.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. C-class activity is possible from old Region 808 as it rotates into view on 04 October. There is also a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/05
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 03 Oct 074
- Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 080/085/085
- 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 008/007
- Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 008/007-008/007-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
