Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Oct 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
October 3, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Oct 03 2208 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity levels were very low again this period. Old active Region 808 is rotating on the southeast limb near S10. This was a very active region during its last passage across the visible disk; however, there has been no significant eruptive activity observed over the past few days.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. C-class activity is possible from old Region 808 as it rotates into view on 04 October. There is also a slight chance for an M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct

  • Class M 15/15/15
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/05
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 03 Oct 074
  • Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 080/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 090

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/013
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 008/007
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 008/007-008/007-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.