Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 May 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 03 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 601 (S10W61)
produced several low C-class flares, including a C1.0 at 03/1343
UTC. New Region 604 (S19E52) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 601 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Isolated
active and minor storm conditions are possible on day three (6 May)
as the geomagnetic field comes under the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from a geoeffective coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May

• Class M 15/15/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 May 091
• Predicted 04 May-06 May 100/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 03 May 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 004/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 005/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 010/015-012/015-018/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/30/35
• Minor storm 15/15/20
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/35/40
• Minor storm 20/25/30
• Major-severe storm 05/05/10