Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 May 2003

SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 349 (S14W34)
remains the largest region on the disk. This region has decreased
slightly in white light area and spot count but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 349 has the potential for continued C-class
flares as well as an isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for 04 May.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 05 May-06 May as a
result of activity from a recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May

• Class M 60/50/50
• Class X 10/05/05
• Proton 05/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 May 148
• Predicted 04 May-06 May 135/130/125
• 90 Day Mean 03 May 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 011/017
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 013/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 010/012-015/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/30/30
• Minor storm 10/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/35/40
• Minor storm 15/20/25
• Major-severe storm 05/10/10