Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Mar 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Mar 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed continued to decline with values at about 500 km/s at forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Mar 068
• Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 03 Mar 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 008/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01