Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Mar 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
March 3, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Mar 03 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. The
largest flare of the period was a low level B-class flare that was
observed on the solar northeast limb and occurred at 03/1504Z. A
reemergence of sunspots was observed in Region 739 (S03W16) during
the period, with a single umbra visible in each polarity. Region
740 (S07W37) underwent decay in sunspot area. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through 4 and 5 March. Isolated
active conditions are expected late on 6 March due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 03 Mar 077
  • Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 080/080/085
  • 90 Day Mean 03 Mar 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 008/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 003/006
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 004/005-004/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/25
  • Minor storm 01/01/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/30
  • Minor storm 01/01/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.