Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Mar 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Mar 03 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. The
largest flare of the period was a low level B-class flare that was
observed on the solar northeast limb and occurred at 03/1504Z. A
reemergence of sunspots was observed in Region 739 (S03W16) during
the period, with a single umbra visible in each polarity. Region
740 (S07W37) underwent decay in sunspot area. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through 4 and 5 March. Isolated
active conditions are expected late on 6 March due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 03 Mar 077
- Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 080/080/085
- 90 Day Mean 03 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 008/012
- Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 003/006
- Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 004/005-004/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/25
- Minor storm 01/01/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/15/30
- Minor storm 01/01/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
