Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Jun 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 03 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 772 (S17E09)
produced an M1.3/1b flare at 0411 UTC with associated Type II radio
sweep (571 km/s). There was also an M1.0 flare from the NE limb at
1226 UTC. A powerful CME with a speed of over 1500 km/s was
observed on LASCO imagery following this flare. A strong post-flare
loop system was also visible on the east limb near N15. This flare
originated from a region around the limb not yet numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels. C-class activity is expected
from Region 772. Isolated M-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled through 05 June. A CME from today’s M1
flare in Region 772 may create occasional active periods on 05 and
06 June.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
- Class M 25/25/25
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 03 Jun 095
- Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 095/100/105
- 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 007/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 010/010-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/25/25
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/30/35
- Minor storm 15/15/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/10
