Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Jun 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
June 3, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 03 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 772 (S17E09)
produced an M1.3/1b flare at 0411 UTC with associated Type II radio
sweep (571 km/s). There was also an M1.0 flare from the NE limb at
1226 UTC. A powerful CME with a speed of over 1500 km/s was
observed on LASCO imagery following this flare. A strong post-flare
loop system was also visible on the east limb near N15. This flare
originated from a region around the limb not yet numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels. C-class activity is expected
from Region 772. Isolated M-class flares are possible.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled through 05 June. A CME from today’s M1
flare in Region 772 may create occasional active periods on 05 and
06 June.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun

  • Class M 25/25/25
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 03 Jun 095
  • Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 095/100/105
  • 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 007/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 010/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 010/010-015/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/25
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/30/35
  • Minor storm 15/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.