Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Jun 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jun 03 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 621
(S14W01) contains minor magnetic mixing, but produced only small
B-class activity. This period was actually highlighted by a number
of CMEs, predominately off the west limb. The first of these
occurred at around 02/2300Z from behind the northwest limb. An
associated Type II radio sweep was observed with a shock speed of
658 km/s. Bright surging was observed on the west limb at 0830Z,
which preceded another CME observed on LASCO imagery at 0950Z. The
most impressive event of the period was a partial halo CME
associated with a prominence eruption that began at around 03/1620Z.
A Type II radio sweep (717 km/s) accompanied this CME. Much of the
ejecta associated with this CME appeared to originate from behind
the northwest limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Very low levels are expected through 4 June. C-class
activity is possible on 5 and 6 June with the return of old active
regions.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated near 500 km/s, but IMF Bz was predominantly
northward. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a chance
for isolated active periods at high latitudes through 4 June. The
current weak coronal hole high speed stream is expected to subside
by 5 June.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
- Class M 05/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 03 Jun 090
- Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 090/095/095
- 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 009/011
- Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 009/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/15/15
- Minor storm 05/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/20/20
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
