Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Jun 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
June 3, 2004
Filed under , , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jun 03 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 621
(S14W01) contains minor magnetic mixing, but produced only small
B-class activity. This period was actually highlighted by a number
of CMEs, predominately off the west limb. The first of these
occurred at around 02/2300Z from behind the northwest limb. An
associated Type II radio sweep was observed with a shock speed of
658 km/s. Bright surging was observed on the west limb at 0830Z,
which preceded another CME observed on LASCO imagery at 0950Z. The
most impressive event of the period was a partial halo CME
associated with a prominence eruption that began at around 03/1620Z.
A Type II radio sweep (717 km/s) accompanied this CME. Much of the
ejecta associated with this CME appeared to originate from behind
the northwest limb.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Very low levels are expected through 4 June. C-class
activity is possible on 5 and 6 June with the return of old active

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated near 500 km/s, but IMF Bz was predominantly
northward. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a chance
for isolated active periods at high latitudes through 4 June. The
current weak coronal hole high speed stream is expected to subside
by 5 June.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun

  • Class M 05/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 03 Jun 090
  • Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 090/095/095
  • 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 009/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 009/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 008/010-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.