Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Jun 2003
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Today’s activity consisted of
occasional C-class subflares, mostly from Region 375 (N12E50).
Region 375 is now the largest spot group on the disk and was active,
but did not show significant growth during the past 24 hours. The
remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an M-class flare from Region
375.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was an
isolated minor storm period from 0900-1200 UTC. Solar wind data
continue to indicate the presence of a high-speed wind stream, which
is due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2
MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active at mid-latitudes and active to minor
storm at high latitudes. The high speed coronal hole stream should
continue for at least the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
- Class M 50/50/50
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 03 Jun 115
- Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 110/110/110
- 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 022/039
- Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 022/030
- Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 020/030-020/035-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 40/40/40
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 45/45/45
- Major-severe storm 15/15/15
