Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE has continually increased from around 300 km/s to 430 km/s as a result of a sector boundary crossing around 03/0800 UT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 04 July. Predominately quiet conditions are expected for 05-06 July.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Jul 072
• Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 03 Jul 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 003/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01