Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Jul 2003

SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 397 (N12E00) and 400
(N05E44) produced a few C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The
largest of these was a C5 at 02/2222 UTC from Region 400. Region 400
was active all day and has a dominant northeast-to-southwest
inversion line. Region 397 showed growth in the trailer portion of
the group, leading to the formation of two small delta
configurations.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. There is a good chance for M-class flare activity from
Region 397. In addition, the magnetic structure of Region 400
suggests that it is likely to build shear and this should lead to
frequent subflare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind
speeds increased up to around 600 km/s at 02/2300 UTC, but dropped
down to 500-550 km/s from 0100-1900 UTC. However, there appears to
be another solar wind speed increase in progress at this time. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the
past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next two days in response to a
favorably positioned coronal hole. There may also be isolated
periods of storm level activity. A gradual decline to unsettled to
active is expected on the third day.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 132
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 135/138/141
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 020/025-020/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/10