Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 03 2336 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares occurred during the past 24 hours. Region 980 (S06E42) has decayed to an Hsx alpha sunspot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. A chance remains for an isolated C-class flare from Region 980.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for the next two days (4-5 January). This elevated activity may result from transients associated with recent C-class flares. Predominantly quiet conditions should return on 6 January.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Jan 079
• Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 080/080/085
• 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 001/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 008/010-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 15/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01