Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 935 (S06E51) is a magnetically simple Hhx class group. Region 933 (S04E27) has remained quiescent.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days (04 – 06 January).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind speed reached approximately 700 km/s today and remains elevated due to the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 04 January due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 05 – 06 January.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Jan 081
• Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 012/019
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 015/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 010/010-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01