Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Jan 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The three spotted regions were stable or declining. Little of significance occurred.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels for the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Jan 085
• Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 085/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 005/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 003/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 005/003-005/003-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05