Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 03 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 715 (N04W04)
produced a C3.8/Sf at 0422 UTC. Region 715 has maintained its size
and magnetic complexity. No other significant activity was
observed, and no new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 715 may produce C-class and isolated M-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. Solar wind speed reported yesterday at 800 km/s has
settled to around 650 km/s, still strong enough to produce the
isolated minor storming observed today. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor
storming possible on 4 January from the residual effects of the
coronal hole still in geoeffective position. Activity should
subside to quiet to unsettled levels on 5-6 January.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
- Class M 25/20/20
- Class X 05/05/01
- Proton 05/05/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 03 Jan 094
- Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 095/090/090
- 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 020/033
- Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 020/030
- Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 015/020-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/25/20
- Minor storm 15/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/30/30
- Minor storm 20/10/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
