Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Jan 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
January 3, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jan 03 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S12E51)
continues to be the largest of the three spotted regions on the
visible solar disk. This region now exceeds 900 millionths of white
light area.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 536 could produce an isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind velocity increased to over 600 km/s with a southward Bz of -5
to -10 nt during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately active to minor storm conditions for
04-06 January due to the effects from a coronal hole high speed

III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 03 Jan 116
  • Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 120/125/125
  • 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 009/013
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 020/025
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 025/030-020/030-025/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/35/40
  • Minor storm 20/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 45/45/45
  • Minor storm 25/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.