Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Feb 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled levels. Solar wind speed remained elevated due to an ongoing high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods through day 1 (04 February). Activity is expected to diminish to mostly quiet levels on days 2 and 3 (05-06 February) with the departure of the high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Feb 071
• Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 019/019
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 012/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 010/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/10/10
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 45/10/10
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01