Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Feb 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
February 3, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Feb 03 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares
were observed from an active region rotating around the southeast
limb. Region 729 (S11W25) continues to decay and is the only sunspot
on the visible disk. A 15 degree filament erupted from near N10W07
at around 03/0600Z, but there does not appear to be any
Earth-directed ejecta. Brightness on the southeast and northeast
limb indicates additional active regions will soon rotate into view.
Old active Region 720 (N13, L-178) is due to rotate into view on 05

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Activity levels are expected to increase as active
regions rotate into view over the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 03/0300 – 0600Z. The solar wind speed remains
slightly elevated at just over 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb

  • Class M 05/10/15
  • Class X 01/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 03 Feb 083
  • Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 090/100/115
  • 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 007/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 008/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/25
  • Minor storm 15/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.