Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Feb 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
February 3, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 03 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were three C-class flares
during the past 24 hours, all from Region 551 (S05E51). This region
is small, but was bright and active throughout the day. Region 549
(N14E30) continues to be the largest group on the disk (220
Millionths), but could only manage to produce an occasional B-class
flare. The other active regions on the disk were quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event during the
next three days (04-06 February).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind data
indicate the presence of a high speed solar wind stream driven by a
coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high
levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods during the
next three days (04-06 February) due to persistent coronal-hole
driven activity.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb

  • Class M 25/25/25
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 03 Feb 120
  • Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 105/105/105
  • 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 028/021
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 015/018
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 015/020-015/015-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/40
  • Minor storm 25/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/35
  • Minor storm 30/30/30
  • Major-severe storm 15/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.