Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Dec 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 926 (S10W25) produced two C1/Sf flares at 02/2207Z and 03/0325Z. This region remains a beta-gamma group. Region 927 (N08W21) was quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the first two days (4-5 December). Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected on 6 December as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Dec 087
• Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 085/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 005/005-005/005-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05