Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Dec 2005
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 03 2353 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several low level C-flares were produced by either Region 826 (S03W10) or 830 (N14E64); the largest of which was a C5.3 at 03/0737 UTC from Region 830. Region 826 has decreased in area in the central part of the spot region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a chance for an isolated X-flare from Region 826.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions were due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. On 05 December, minor storm periods are possible due to CME activity from 02 December.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
- Class M 55/50/45
- Class X 20/15/10
- Proton 10/10/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 03 Dec 101
- Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 100/100/095
- 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 010/012
- Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 010/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 008/012-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/30/25
- Minor storm 10/15/10
- Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/35/25
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
