Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 3, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 03 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Dec 2003

SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. An isolated M1
flare was observed at S19 on the southwest limb at 02/2300Z. The
majority of activity over the past twenty-four hours has been from
the southwest limb with two active latitudes; S13 and S19. A C2
flare occurred at S13 on the west limb at 03/2008Z. Region 517
(S06E34) appears to have entered a decay phase with a decrease in
area coverage down to 210 millionths. New Region 518 (S22E10) was
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Isolated moderate level activity is possible from the
southwest limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began on 02 December at 1505Z is still in
progress. Up to this point, peak flux levels have reached 86 pfu at

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed
stream effects are expected to produce active conditions on 04-05

III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec

  • Class M 10/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 25/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 03 Dec 124
  • Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 120/115/110
  • 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 006/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 005/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 008/012-015/020-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/25/35
  • Minor storm 01/10/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/35/50
  • Minor storm 05/20/30
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/20

SpaceRef staff editor.