Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred. New Region 966 (S04E74) rotated into view today and is a simple, H-type sunspot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (4-5 August). Conditions should be mostly quiet on day 3 (6 August) but an increase to unsettled is possible late in the day due to the onset of a high speed solar wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Aug 070
• Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 005/005-005/005-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/25
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05