Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Aug 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
August 3, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Aug 03 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 794
(S11E34) produced the largest flare of the period, an M3/1n event
that occurred at 03/0506Z. A Tenflare (120 sfu) and a Type II
spectral radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 725
km/sec accompanied the flare. LASCO imagery depicted a CME that
does not appear to have an Earth directed component. This region
continues to show steady growth in magnetic development and sunspot
count. Showing steady decay, Region 792 (N11W01) was limited to B
and C-class flare activity today. The delta structure seen
yesterday in the northern portion of the sunspot cluster is no
longer visible although gamma structures are apparent in both
polarities. Region 796 (S07E05) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Regions 792 and 794 are capable of producing
M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on 04 August due to the potential for
transient activity associated with the CME events seen on 01 and 02

III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug

  • Class M 60/60/60
  • Class X 15/15/15
  • Proton 15/15/15
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 03 Aug 109
  • Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 110/110/105
  • 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 009/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 007/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 012/015-005/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/15/15
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/20
  • Minor storm 15/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.