Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Aug 2003
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Aug 2003
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been low-moderate. Region 424
(S18E52) continues to generate minor C-class flare activity, and
produced an impulsive M1.3 x-ray flare at 02/2354 UTC. A new Region
427 (N04W16) has grown quickly over the last 24 hours, but remains
relatively inactive.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 424 (S18E52) and 427 (N04W16) have only a slight chance of
producing an M-class x-ray flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. The
coronal hole driven high-speed stream has passed beyond geoeffective
range. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached very high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 03 Aug 120
- Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 120/118/118
- 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 015/021
- Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 012/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 010/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
