Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 Apr 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Spotless plage Region 989 (S11W41) produced two low-level C-class flares early in the period. No new regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare from plage Region 989.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (04 April) with active periods at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective. Activity is expected to increase to active levels on days 2 – 3 (05 – 06 April) with minor to major storm periods at high latitudes as the high-speed stream continues.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 03 Apr 076
• Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 075/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 007/010-015/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/40/30
• Minor storm 01/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/50/50
• Minor storm 05/25/25
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05