Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Sep 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
September 3, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Sep 2006
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An isolated active period was observed at middle latitudes between 01/2100 to 2400 UTC due to a prolonged period of southward Bz.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods possible on 03 – 04 September due to a coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position. On 05 September, conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 02 Sep 076
  • Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 075/075/080
  • 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 008/013
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 006/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 012/020-010/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/20
  • Minor storm 15/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/20
  • Minor storm 25/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 15/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.