Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Sep 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Sep 02 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A long duration B6.0
flare occurred at 02/0256 UTC which appears to be associated with
activity around the NW limb. Region 667 (S10E62) has an alpha
magnetic configuration and has grown slightly in white light
coverage.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated periods of active
levels are possible on 03 September due to a CME observed on 31
August.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Sep 094
• Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 100/105/110
• 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 005/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 015/015-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01