Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Sep 2003

SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. No significant
changes have been noted for the active regions on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with C-class flares possible from Regions 448 (N19W34)
and 450 (S18E14).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active, due to the effects of
high speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind
speed peaked above 550 km/s during the period, and steadily declined
to 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated minor storm conditions are
possible from a high speed solar wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Sep 106
• Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 115/125/130
• 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 011/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 014/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 020/025-015/020-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/20/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 10/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/30/30
• Minor storm 40/40/30
• Major-severe storm 20/15/10